Societies have prospered using a linear “take-make-use-dispose” approach, extracting natural resources to make products, using them, and ultimately discarding them or their residues. This unsustainable approach has exploited natural resources at a rate that has caused excessive pollution and loss of biodiversity, and is leading to a global climate crisis. In response to this challenge, industries are seeking technological solutions that will meet societal needs in a way that is financially viable while supporting the pursuit of broader goals for sustainability (e.g., resource circularity, carbon neutrality, equity). This transition has become a catalyst for research and development, but a critical challenge to achieving rapid and transformative innovations has been the expansive landscape of technology development pathways and the lack of a transparent and consistent framework to target investment.

This presentation will focus on the prioritization of research, development, and deployment (RD&D) pathways for the conversion of renewable resources into biofuels and bio-based products. Using a structured methodology – Quantitative Sustainable Design (QSD) – we integrate process design, simulation, techno-economic analysis (TEA), and life cycle assessment (LCA) under uncertainty to elucidate drivers of system sustainability, identify performance gaps, evaluate tradeoffs and optimize across alternatives, and assess context-specific implications of technology advancement and deployment. Leveraging examples from the Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation (CABBI), we will focus on the conversion of perennial grasses (Miscanthus, switchgrass, sugarcane) and agricultural residues to biofuels (sustainable aviation fuel [SAF]) and bioproducts (e.g., 3-hydroxypropionic acid [3-HP], triacetic acid lactone [TAL]), including the exploration of opportunities for the integration of decarbonized processes with existing infrastructure (e.g., co-processing of SAF). In addition to demonstrating specific potential pathways to advance the circular bioeconomy, this presentation will make the process of QSD more accessible to researchers and technology developers across disciplines, including for the broader prioritization of RD&D for novel technologies.